Bobservation No.136: Replacement Rate

I thought I might herald the New Year in with what appears to be a nationally (and internationally) highly contentious subject.

The apparent rise in net immigration to Britain makes me wonder if those opposed to it are aware of a certain fact. The current replacement rate of fertility is 1.44 but the population of UK, according to WHO, should have a replacement rate of 2.10 if it is to remain static. Accordingly there will be a reduction in the population unless it is increased by some other source. This can only be increased fertility or immigration. So it appears that, assuming there is no increase the birth rate, if we want to maintain the present population the only likely source of maintaining our current population level is, like it or not, increased immigration, and this will in all likelihood be black or brown people. Currently both NHS and the private sector of care depend on immigrants to maintain their efficiency, without them it would be a very reduced system.

However, I take this opportunity to wish you all a very healthy and happy New Year 2026.